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An Essay Toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances
Bayes, T. Rev. (1763)
Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, 53, 370-418

Nominator's statement

The good reverend discovered the relationship between P(A|B) and P(B|A), and laid the foundation for modern normative theories of reasoning under uncertainty, and learning from data. Probabilistic formulations are now very popular in perception, learning, and even linguistics.

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